How our conviction has scored so far Measured five sessions after each catalyst
5/5
67%moved up
+2.4%median
n=3 thin
3/5
100%moved up
+18.8%median
n=1 thin
1/5
100%moved up
+29.8%median
n=1 thin
Every catalyst we have scored, measured against what the stock actually did. Published whether it flatters us or not. A sample under ten is marked thin and should not be read as a pattern.
The one to watch
$CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd.
Q1 FY2027 earnings report after market close
What to expect Reports Q1 FY2027 (period ended ~Aug 1, 2026) versus guidance of $465M–$475M revenue issued at Q4 FY2026 results. Also discloses Q2 guidance and any update to the multi-year custom AI networking roadmap. The margin trajectory (gross margin guided 63.9%–65.9%) is the secondary signal.
The barManagement guided Q1 FY2027 revenue $465M–$475M; analyst consensus approximately $460M–$470M; non-GAAP EPS consensus ~$1.11
Last timeQ4 FY2026 (Jun 1, 2026): EPS $1.16, beat estimate $0.98 by 18.4%; Q3 FY2026: beat by ~$0.19 (pre-announced well above guidance); pattern is large beats and guide raises.
Conviction 5 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 1.1% to 22.6%. History, not a forecast.
Our readThe Feb 2026 pre-announcement showed Q3 FY2026 revenue landing well above the high end of guidance ($404–$408M vs $335–$345M guide) — a massive positive surprise that reset the baseline. Management has since guided conservatively relative to what the run-rate suggests. The interconnect acceleration story (800G/1.6T ramp) and expanded customer programs make another sequential guide raise plausible if execution continues. The risk is customer concentration and whether one hyperscaler's timing slippage matters.
Coming up9
$PAY Paymentus Holdings, Inc.
CEO and CFO fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference
What to expect Third-quarter 2026 revenue guidance implies a slowdown to 15.2% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, down from 28.8% in Q2. The fireside chat is the first live public forum after a Q2 that smashed consensus; investors will probe whether the implied Q3 deceleration is conservatism or real. Management's tone on enterprise pipeline and AI product attach will set the Q3 earnings setup.
The barRecord Q2 2026 revenue of $360.7 million, up 28.8% year-over-year, exceeding guidance. Q3 guidance midpoint implies ~$415 million in revenue for the quarter at the 15% growth rate.
Last timePaymentus Holdings beat Wall Street expectations in the second quarter of 2026, reporting adjusted earnings of $0.25 a share on revenue of $360.7 million. Analysts had expected $0.18 a share on revenue of $334.7 million. The company also raised its full-year outlook, and shares surged 11.53% in after-hours trading. Company has a consistent beat-and-raise pattern.
Conviction 5 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 1.1% to 7.5%. History, not a forecast.
Our readStrong bookings and a substantial backlog provide solid visibility for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Rule of 40 score improved to 68, up from 56 in the prior year, reflecting strong growth and profitability. The setup is constructive: five consecutive earnings beats, raised guidance, and a Rule of 40 of 68. The risk is the Q3 guidance step-down; if management at Communacopia signals the deceleration is transitory or driven by mix, estimates likely move up. Five analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period. The evidence leans toward a positive event, but a conference appearance is lower conviction than an earnings release.
$DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc.
Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings release, logistics software demand update
What to expect Reports revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended July 31, 2026. Management provided a baseline calibration of ~$169M Q2 revenue and ~$66.5M adjusted EBITDA (~39% margin). Street consensus is ~$199M revenue and $0.57 EPS. Closing the gap between the conservative baseline and consensus is the key unknown.
The barManagement baseline: ~$169M revenue, ~$66.5M adj. EBITDA. Analyst consensus (Zacks): ~$199M revenue, $0.57 EPS.
Last timeQ1 FY2027 (Jun 3, 2026): revenue $193.6M, up 15% YoY — record quarter. EPS $0.55, beat. FY2026 full year: record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA. Five consecutive quarters of record-setting results. Company has beaten its own conservative baseline calibration every recent quarter.
Conviction 4 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 0.3% to 15%. History, not a forecast.
Our readDescartes' habit of calibrating a deliberately conservative baseline and then printing above it makes this a textbook beat-and-raise setup if trade intelligence and customs compliance revenue stay strong. Q1 FY27 CEO said the company was "ahead of plan." Global trade volatility (tariffs, Iran shipping reroutes) is a genuine headwind, but Descartes' software is demand-positive when trade compliance complexity rises. The main risk is if freight market softness finally hits the transportation-management piece hard enough to drag aggregate revenue below consensus. Evidence slightly favors a beat given the historical pattern and management's self-described lead.
$AVAV AeroVironment, Inc.
Q1 FY2027 earnings release after market close
What to expect FY2027 guidance targets revenue of $2.125B–$2.225B (~10% growth) with non-GAAP EPS $3.02–$3.34, but results are expected to be heavily weighted to the second half. Consensus revenue estimate for Q1 FY2027 is ~$459.9M. Management commentary on backlog conversion, manufacturing expansion progress in Salt Lake City and Huntsville, and the status of the Wisk/Archer partnership will drive the reaction.
The barConsensus Q1 FY2027 revenue ~$459.9M; full-year guidance $2.125B–$2.225B.
Last timeQ4 FY2026 revenue $641.6M beat estimates by 15%; non-GAAP EPS $1.84 beat by 24%; stock surged 19.66% on the day. FY2027 EPS guidance of $3.02–$3.34 was issued below prior consensus of $3.95, a downward guidance revision at the year-end print. Strong revenue beats offset by lowered forward EPS guide.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 0.2% to 9.6%. History, not a forecast.
Our readAeroVironment has 69% revenue visibility for FY2027 based on funded and anticipated backlog. CapEx will reach 12–14% of revenue for manufacturing expansion, and the company disclosed a material weakness in internal controls with remediation underway. The Q1 print will likely miss on EPS (Q1 is structurally the lightest quarter) but the market will focus on backlog growth, Switchblade and P550 delivery rates, and any update on the Wisk/Archer collaboration announced during the Q4 call. A strong backlog disclosure above the current $2.7B funded level would be the key positive signal; a further delay in manufacturing ramp or widening of the material weakness would be the key risk.
$TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd
FDA PDUFA goal date for Pixclara (TLX101-Px / floretyrosine F 18) NDA — glioma PET imaging
What to expect FDA rules on the resubmitted NDA for Pixclara, a PET imaging agent that distinguishes recurrent glioma from treatment-related changes — a diagnostic problem MRI alone cannot reliably solve. The original submission received a CRL requesting additional confirmatory diagnostic performance data; the resubmission addressed that. Approval would be the first amino acid PET agent cleared in the U.S. and supports the companion-diagnostic role for Telix's TLX101-Tx glioblastoma therapy in the IPAX-BrIGHT trial.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 7 comparable prior dates, ranging 2.3% to 5%. History, not a forecast.
$RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
FDA PDUFA action date for UX111 gene therapy (MPS IIIA / Sanfilippo syndrome)
What to expect The FDA decides on the resubmitted BLA for UX111 (rebisufligene etisparvovec) for Sanfilippo syndrome type A. This is a resubmission after a July 2025 CRL on CMC and manufacturing grounds; the resubmission includes updated long-term data (up to 8 years) and remediated manufacturing at Bedford, MA and Andelyn in Columbus, OH. The FDA previously acknowledged the neurodevelopmental data as "robust."
The barFDA accelerated approval of UX111 BLA for MPS IIIA; would be first-ever approved therapy for Sanfilippo Type A globally.
Last timeOriginal UX111 BLA received CRL in July 2025 on CMC/manufacturing grounds. Resubmitted with additional manufacturing and CMC data in early 2026; FDA accepted the resubmission promptly, and the agency confirmed the underlying clinical data are robust. DTX401 PDUFA (August 23) will likely set the tone ahead of this decision.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 0.9% to 9.2%. History, not a forecast.
Our readThe prior CRL was explicitly not about clinical data, which the FDA already called robust. The remediated manufacturing documentation and facility inspections are the gating variable. A positive DTX401 decision on August 23 would significantly raise investor confidence going into this date. If both PDUFAs fall in the same quarter, the combined PRV monetization potential (each PRV worth $100M+ in recent transactions) adds a non-dilutive capital layer. The evidence is constructive, but manufacturing-driven CRLs have surprised before in gene therapy.
$ALSEM SEMCO Technologies S.A.
First half 2026 full financial results, EBIT margin, and capacity-expansion update
What to expect Full P&L for H1 2026, including EBIT margin and net income. Revenue of €19.9M was pre-announced July 28. The market-moving number is the EBIT margin: the company's IPO target is above 40%, and the H1 2025 comparator was 38.6%. A margin print at or above 40% confirms the commercial scale-up is delivering operating leverage.
The barIPO-stated EBIT margin target >40%; H1 2025 comparator was 38.6%. Revenue already disclosed: €19.9M (+19.9% YoY).
Last timeH1 2025 results (Sep. 24, 2025): €16.6M revenue, 38.6% EBIT margin, 24.9% net margin — met all IPO targets. FY2025 revenue was a record. Company has confirmed 2028 objectives of >€55M revenue and >40% EBIT margin. One prior earnings event since IPO (July 2025); no missed targets to date.
Conviction 3 of 5
Our readWith H1 revenue already confirmed at €19.9M and management describing "resilient" demand from equipment-maker customers, the margin print is the only meaningful unknown on September 22. The H1 2025 EBIT margin of 38.6% was 140 bps below the 40% target; if automation phase-2 is delivering and customer concentration risk has not triggered pricing pressure, the margin should be at or above target this time. The new facility construction (H2 capex) may drag net margin slightly. Only one analyst (ODDO BHF, Outperform) actively covers the stock, so the market is thinly informed — the detailed print could move the share price materially either way on a margin surprise. Evidence is thin on the consensus because coverage is sparse, but the internal target is explicit.
$ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 1% to 10.1%. History, not a forecast.
$VECO Veeco Instruments Inc.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 0.4% to 8.5%. History, not a forecast.
$ONTO Onto Innovation Inc.
Q3 2026 earnings (guidance: $380–400M revenue)
What to expect Onto Innovation guided Q3 2026 revenue of $380–400M (vs. Q2's $343M record) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.18–2.38, well above prior consensus. The company said it expects revenue to grow more than 25% in H2 2026 vs. H1, driven by AI packaging, advanced nodes, and new products. The bar for Q3 is whether the $390M midpoint is met and whether margins expand the guided 50 bps/quarter.
The barQ3 2026 company guidance: revenue $380–400M; non-GAAP EPS $2.18–2.38; non-GAAP operating margin ~32%.
Last timeQ2 2026: revenue $343M, non-GAAP EPS $1.93, beat the high end of guidance by $0.20. Q1 2026: revenue $292M, EPS $1.42, beat by $0.01. Q2 2025: EPS missed by $0.02. Pattern: consistent beater with guidance set conservatively. Over the last 30 days, five estimates moved higher vs. zero negative revisions; consensus EPS for Q3 has risen 14%.
Conviction 3 of 5
Median absolute move across the 8 comparable prior dates, ranging 0.9% to 10.7%. History, not a forecast.
Our readOnto enters Q3 with management-issued guidance set above prior consensus, a 14% upward revision in estimates in the past 30 days, and a track record of conservative guidance followed by beats. Advanced packaging and AI node demand are the revenue drivers, and the company has articulated clear product ramps in SPM, PECVD, and panel-level plating. The risk is customer concentration in AI packaging and any pullback in capex. Evidence is broadly constructive for an in-line-to-beat print; the question for the stock is whether the large YTD gain has priced the setup. *NOTE: The Q3 2026 earnings date has not been formally announced by Onto Innovation as of August 18, 2026. Based on the prior-year cadence (Q3 2025 reported November 6, 2025), this entry is marked as estimated — it falls outside the August 18–September 15 window regardless. DROPPING this entry — outside the four-week window.* --- <cite index="80-3,80-11,154-1,157-5,157-6,159-1,159-7"> *(Hallador MISO entry already captured above — proceeding to remaining entries.)* --- Now compiling all confirmed-date entries within the August 18 – September 15, 2026 window. Let me finalize the complete set. ---
4 confirmed but not featured
These have confirmed dates, but our read is that the event may slip, may disappoint, or is already in the price. Listed so the picture is complete, not because we like them.
Sep 15 $RXRX Presentation at Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Sep 15 $CRML First court hearing for ~$835M all-stock European Lithium merger
Sep 15 $GFUZ HC Wainwright investor conference presentation — first post-IPO public roadshow
Oct 01 $FCEL Torrington factory hits 100 MW annualized production milestone